GBN Global Business Network

As the world's foremost scenario consultancy, GBN has collaborated with hundreds of the world's leading corporate, nonprofit, and governmental organizations to explore emerging uncertainties, understand rising risks and opportunities, and develop robust, adaptive strategies for the future.

GBN's services are designed to enhance both the competitive and adaptive capacity of organizations through collaborative learning, scenario and strategy consulting, and scenario training.

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Eamonn Kelly, GBN's CEO, gave the keynote address to the Alliance of Chief Executives on February 8 in San Francisco. Eamonn discussed rising to the leadership and organizational challenges of uncertain times.

After a busy week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, GBN Chairman Peter Schwartz addressed the British Cabinet's Strategic Planning Office on "Anticipating Strategic Surprise." His presentation is posted on the UK Cabinet website.

On February 21, Peter will be speaking at the annual TED conference on "What the Future Will Bring."

Peter's first book, The Art of the Long View (1991), was just voted the #1 futures book (current and classic) by the Association of Professional Futurists.

GBN is delighted to announce the addition of two senior practioners. Nick Turner was a Managing Director of Morgan Stanley, where he most recently served as Head of European Strategy and Head of Strategic Marketing. Based in London, Nick will head GBN in Europe.

Olaf Groth, based in San Francisco, brings a wide range of international business experience from his marketing, strategy, and managerial roles at Qualcomm, Boeing, Vodaphone, AirTouch Communications. He has also spearheaded entrepreneurial ventures in high and clean technologies.

Peter Schwartz and Mick Costigan (GBN-Monitor's new Future Scholar) published an article on the important role that big ideas will continue to play in India's future growth and development. It appears in Businessworld, an Indian business publication, as part of the "2008--The Year Ahead" issue.

GBN practitioner Erik Smith is leading a scenario project on the Future of Arctic Navigation for the Arctic Council's PAME (Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment) program. This multi-stakeholder engagement examines the social, political, economic, and environmental impacts of ice-free Arctic summers in the 2040s. Erik's article, "Using a Scenario Approach: From Business to Regional Futures," was just published in Engaging the Future (2007).

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The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century

A scenario project with the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment

Four scenarios contemplating the wide-ranging effects that continued climate change could have on Arctic waterways in the future.

Environment and Sustainability | Scenario Thinking

GBN Podcasts

Listen to live recordings of GBN in Conversation, a speakers series in which leading thinkers, visionaries, and experts from the GBN Network and beyond offer their unique insights and perspectives on global issues and uncertainties.

Forces of the Future

A Flash animation

Narrated by GBN CEO Eamonn Kelly, "Forces of the Future" is a Flash animation exploring 10 trends that are creating, even transforming, our future.

The Future of Clean Technology

A Conversation with Peter Schwartz

In this interview with Ernst & Young, Peter Schwartz opines on the short-term future of clean tech from business, investment, and technology perspectives.

Science and Technology | Scenario Thinking

Anticipating Strategic Surprise

Executives can anticipate, prepare for, and act on strategic surprises by using scenario thinking and related tools.

The Business Agenda | Scenario Thinking

Energy Strategy for the Road Ahead

Scenario Thinking for Business Executives and Corporate Boards

This report, developed with 20 senior executives from major U.S. companies in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ENERGY STAR program, considers the possible business impacts of energy and identifies strategies to ensure energy success across a range of futures.

Environment and Sustainability | Scenario Thinking | The Business Agenda

Growth Scenarios

Tools to Resolve Leaders’ Denial and Paralysis

Drawing on technology case studies, GBN practitioners Jonathan Star and Doug Randall show how scenarios can help address paralysis and denial, the twin obstacles that often prevent successful companies from adopting new growth strategies.

Scenario Thinking | The Business Agenda

Developing and Using Scenarios
April 21-25: Berkeley, CA
June 16-20: Tarrytown, NY
October 27-31: Berkeley, CA
California and New York

more events »

Larry Brilliant, head of Google.org, recently announced the organization's philanthropic strategy. The strategy addresses the global challenges climate change, economic development, and security through five core initiatives: to develop renewable energy cheaper than coal; to accelerate the commercialization of plug-in vehicles; to predict and prevent [emerging threats, including pandemics]; to inform and empower to improve public services; and to fuel the growth of small and medium-size enterprises.

May, 2006 Newsletter edited by Stewart Brand

Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, A New Urban World
Robert Neuwirth

The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis and The Fate of Humanity
James Lovelock