Scenarios are tools for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which today's decisions might be played out. In practice, scenarios resemble a set of stories, written or spoken, built around carefully constructed plots. Stories are an old way of organizing knowledge; when used as strategic

Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty. Pierre Wack

tools, they confront denial by encouraging—in fact, requiring—the willing suspension of disbelief. Stories can express multiple perspectives on complex events; scenarios give meaning to these events.

Scenarios are powerful planning tools precisely because the future is unpredictable. Unlike traditional forecasting or market research, scenarios present alternative images instead of extrapolating current trends from the present. Scenarios also embrace qualitative perspectives and the potential for sharp discontinuities that econometric models exclude. Consequently, creating scenarios requires decision-makers to question their broadest assumptions about the way the world works so they can foresee decisions that might be missed or denied.

Within an organization, scenarios provide a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating complex—and sometimes paradoxical—conditions and options. Good scenarios are plausible and surprising; they have the power to break old stereotypes, and their creators assume ownership and put them to work. Using scenarios is rehearsing the future. By recognizing the warning signs and the drama that is unfolding, one can avoid surprises, adapt, and act effectively. Decisions that have been pre-tested against a range of what fate may offer are more likely to stand the test of time, produce robust and resilient strategies, and create distinct competitive advantage. Ultimately, the result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of tomorrow but better thinking and an ongoing strategic conversation about the future.

GBN is internationally acclaimed for its leadership role in the evolution and application of scenario thinking and strategic conversation. Many members of our staff and network were among the pioneers of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell.