GBN's Scenario-based Consulting
GBN uses scenario thinking in a variety of contexts and in conjunction with other proprietary strategic tools and processes that GBN and our Monitor colleagues have developed and refined over the years.
Many of our early projects focused on illuminating the short- and long-term risks and opportunities associated with specific decisions and investments ("Should we invest $X in project Y?"). Others explored emerging opportunities for products, services, technology, and new markets ("What are the most promising opportunities for cellular infrastructure and service in South America?").
In addition to these applications, increasingly we use scenarios to help organizations change, innovate, and adapt in fundamental ways:
- Identifying potential white spaces between the old and new economies and old and new industries ("How will new media change our business?")
- Sparking innovation and new forms of value creation ("What new products and services might replace traditional mutual funds?")
- Identifying the risks—and associated threats and opportunities—that organizations face today and into the next decade
- Assisting organizations to develop and leverage their own internal and external networks to make sense of—and respond to—mounting uncertainty and complexity
- Engaging and inspiring an organization's key stakeholders to make the changes necessary for organizational transformation ("We all went into healthcare to help people; now we have to learn wholly new ways of behaving in the commercially driven healthcare environment.")
- Creating alignment and energy around an organization's vision and purpose ("What is our twenty-first century business idea?")
- Engaging diverse, even antagonistic, stakeholders to articulate—and create—the future of a city, region, or nation ("What is the future of Colombia and how do we make a positive scenario happen?")
Today's organizations—large and small, public and private—are striving to involve more people in creating their strategies and futures. Scenarios, alone and combined with complementary strategic tools, are valuable in any of these contexts precisely because they facilitate the ongoing learning and strategic conversation that supports effective growth and change.
Scenario Project Phases Typical phases of a GBN scenario consulting engagement include:
- Orientation: purpose of the exercise, definition of success, identification of who must be engaged, etc.
- Exploration: early investigation of the external context through research, external interviews, and other methods
- Scenario creation: mainly in the scenario workshop, and typically augmented with some additional research
- Idea and option generation: what might we do if these worlds were to unfold, and what might our core value proposition become?
- Prioritization and selection: acknowledging that the future is uncertain, what do we want to take forward now?
- Connection: taking the work and linking it directly with the ongoing developmental and decision-making processes within the organization
Project Examples GBN has led scenario efforts across a variety of industries. Recent projects have included:
- International financial regulation and markets
- Telecommunications and computing
- Nuclear power and alternative energy sources
- Sustainability and industrial ecology
- Consumer advertising and marketing
- Automotive industry and car design
- Work and organizations
