Strategy and Decision-Making

With the pace of change and complexity accelerating, many organizations find it more challenging than ever to recognize major growth opportunities. Reliance on traditional planning approaches — including linear forecasting models and conventional industry trends — often leads to blind spots and strategic surprises, exposing an organization to greater, unforeseen risk. It also leaves opportunities on the table, because it is precisely at these points of inflection that new possibilities in business models, products and services, and operational strategies emerge.

Building on our expertise in strategy and scenario planning, GBN helps you make clearer choices under conditions of uncertainty by:

  • Making explicit — and then systematically challenging — your assumptions about external trends and industry forces in order to avoid denial and paralysis
  • Rendering visible the hidden strategic assumptions — or conventional wisdom and beliefs — of your industry, and using this to create value from sources of uncertainty that your competitors are not fully taking into account
  • Moving beyond traditional, linear forecasting models to explore a diverse set of plausible future business environments so that you can minimize threats, find new opportunities, avoid strategic surprises, and adapt to accelerating change

Our strategy engagements are both highly customized and highly interactive. They typically include one or more of the following components:

  • Scenario workshops designed to identify the critical uncertainties affecting an organization's future, develop plausible and challenging scenarios, identify implications, strategic options, and early indicators
  • War-gaming to test your options or product launches against competitor moves and potential surprises
  • Learning Journeys to enable executives to experience firsthand the future as it is unfolding around us and draw strategic implications from what they see
  • Rapid-fire scenario generation to inspire new thinking or test specific product development and launch strategies
  • Strategic Choice Structuring to rigorously identify where you wish to play and how you will win — and the choices that will take you there
  • Communication programs to engage stakeholders — within and outside of your organization — in your vision for or thought leadership about the future
  • Official Futures Analysis to articulate — and then challenge — your organization or industry's deeply held assumptions about the future
  • External networks of visionary thinkers and experts who can help you to co-create and test innovations and strategic options

For more information on GBN's offerings in strategy and decision making, please contact information at gbn dot com or click here.

Related Articles

Constance Gustke, The Conference Board
The history, process, value, and application of scenario planning in a variety of industries is explored.
Chris Anderson
Wired magazine's editor-in-chief talks to GBN about his theory of infinite niche markets, and why weak-signal detection and statistics are the power tools of the future.
Peter Schwartz and Nancy Murphy
Despite the uncertainties surrounding climate change, businesses can and must act now; this summary from a June GBN/Monitor Group workshop suggests how to make climate change a competitive and adaptive advantage.
Peter Schwartz, Doug Randall
Executives can anticipate, prepare for, and act on strategic surprises by using scenario thinking and related tools.
Kees van der Heijden
A seminal paper describing how anchoring your scenarios firmly to your “business idea,” will increase their relevance and value as a strategic and management tool.
Eamonn Kelly
An essay by GBN's Eamonn Kelly, from the book Best Practice: Ideas and Insights from the World's Foremost Business Thinkers
Texaco SMG
This case study describes how Texaco’s Strategic Management Group (SMG) used the scenario process to analyze the external business environment and identify the challenges, options, and strategic alternatives facing Texaco into the future. The analysis helped to create the strategic context for subsequent investment and policy decisions by the company.
Erika Gregory, Gerald Harris, Jay Ogilvy
Investing in engagement and communication strategies will substantially increase the value of your scenarios.
Jay Ogilvy
GBN cofounder Jay Ogilvy gives a quick introduction to existentialism, and applies the lessons to business issues.
Lawrence Wilkinson
For a special “Scenarios” edition of Wired magazine, GBN cofounder Lawrence Wilkinson describes how to use scenarios to plan for “long fuse, big bang” problems in an era of uncertainty.
Diana Scearce, Katherine Fulton
GBN's scenario guide encourages nonprofit leaders to challenge the status quo, or get better at doing so, by asking "What if?"
Chris Ertel and Doug Randall
Got risk? Try scenario thinking. In this Financial Times article, Chris Ertel and Doug Randall, lay out the reasons why scenario thinking is an effective approach for managing risk.
Erik Smith, Peter Schwartz
Twenty senior U.S. executives, in cooperation with the Environmental Protection, assess the possible strategic impacts of energy across a range of future scenarios.
Jonathan Star, Doug Randall
Technology case studies show how scenarios can help address paralysis and denial, twin obstacles that prevent successful companies from adopting new growth strategies.