Scenarios and Strategy

Peter Schwartz
In this video series, GBN cofounder Peter Schwartz discusses the value of scenario planning and some key success factors.
Peter Schwartz and Eamonn Kelly
This article published by Orlen in Planning in Times of Uncertainty describes how scenario planning can be a powerful tool for exploring the future and emerging business models.
Peter Schwartz
Twenty years after the publication of The Art of the Long View, GBN cofounder Peter Schwartz reflects on lessons learned and the scenarios that may lie ahead.
John Yuva
GBN senior practitioner Matt Ranen applies the art of scenario planning to supply chain strategy in Inside Supply Management article.
Peter Schwartz
Peter Schwartz describes how, in a world of cascading crises, governments and companies can stay ahead of the curve.
GBN and The Rockefeller Foundation
Four scenarios on the future of technology and international development illuminate the tremendous opportunities (and challenges) that lie ahead, especially in emerging countries, as government, philanthropy, and business use technology to eradicate poverty and increase future options, prosperity and well being for billions.
Constance Gustke, The Conference Board
The history, process, value, and application of scenario planning in a variety of industries is explored.
Eamonn Kelly
Seven dynamic tensions that are shaping the future, excepted from Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World
Nick Turner
In times of great uncertainty, scenario planning can help executives develop more adaptive, robust strategies.
Peter Schwartz, Doug Randall
Executives can anticipate, prepare for, and act on strategic surprises by using scenario thinking and related tools.
Chris Ertel and Maryln Walton
Herman Miller, the noted workplace design company, has used scenario planning to explore the future of work and to engage its customers in an ongoing conversation about the implications. In this interview published in SEE magazine, Chris Ertel, GBN, and Maryln Walton, Herman Miller, discuss their work together and the value of thinking scenarically.
Eamonn Kelly
In this Financial Times article, GBN CEO Eamonn Kelly describes the causes and consequences of growing uncertainty and recommends six concepts that will enable businesses to embrace paradox and the unknown.
Chris Ertel and Doug Randall
Got risk? Try scenario thinking. In this Financial Times article, Chris Ertel and Doug Randall, lay out the reasons why scenario thinking is an effective approach for managing risk.
Eamonn Kelly and Steven Weber
For a special Financial Times series on "mastering risk," GBN tackles the common perception that risk is something to be avoided and minimized.
Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy
“Plotting Your Scenarios” by two GBN cofounders is an invaluable introduction to the art and process of scenario planning.
Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton
A discussion of how scenario thinking can best be adapted for small resource-constrained organizations working for the public interest.
Jay Ogilvy and Erik Smith
How different is scenario planning done for public versus private purposes? The authors distill a set of lessons based on regional scenario planning projects run by GBN throughout the 1990s.
Diana Scearce, Katherine Fulton
GBN's scenario guide encourages nonprofit leaders to challenge the status quo, or get better at doing so, by asking "What if?"
Eamonn Kelly
An essay by GBN's Eamonn Kelly, from the book Best Practice: Ideas and Insights from the World's Foremost Business Thinkers
Texaco SMG
This case study describes how Texaco’s Strategic Management Group (SMG) used the scenario process to analyze the external business environment and identify the challenges, options, and strategic alternatives facing Texaco into the future. The analysis helped to create the strategic context for subsequent investment and policy decisions by the company.
Erika Gregory, Gerald Harris, Jay Ogilvy
Investing in engagement and communication strategies will substantially increase the value of your scenarios.
Kees van der Heijden
A seminal paper describing how anchoring your scenarios firmly to your “business idea,” will increase their relevance and value as a strategic and management tool.
Jay Ogilvy
GBN cofounder Jay Ogilvy gives a quick introduction to existentialism, and applies the lessons to business issues.
Art Kleiner
How Royal Dutch Shell gathered and harnessed heretics to think strategically about the future.
Adam Kahane
Report of a national, multi-stakeholder scenario project on the future of Colombia.
Lawrence Wilkinson
For a special “Scenarios” edition of Wired magazine, GBN cofounder Lawrence Wilkinson describes how to use scenarios to plan for “long fuse, big bang” problems in an era of uncertainty.
COSE and GBN
This set of scenarios, developed by GBN and Ohio's Council of Smaller Enterprises, examines the future of U.S. healthcare from the perspective of small businesses five or 10 years from now,
Jonathan Star, Doug Randall
Technology case studies show how scenarios can help address paralysis and denial, twin obstacles that prevent successful companies from adopting new growth strategies.
Erik Smith, Peter Schwartz
Twenty senior U.S. executives, in cooperation with the Environmental Protection, assess the possible strategic impacts of energy across a range of future scenarios.
Adam Kahane
The pioneering multi-stakeholder scenario process that helped bring down apartheid in South Africa.